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The World Bank report, Africa Pulse, has project a 3.6 percent growth for Nigeria in 2025, on the basis of improving non-oil sectors and stabilising economic environment.
Earlier the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted lower 3.0 percent for the country’s growth admist macroeconomic reforms by the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration.
The report noted that Nigeria Nigeria account for 15 percent of world’s extremely poor people in 2025.
The bank’s latest economic forecast in April 2025, which is contained in the Spring 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse, reflects a more optimistic view than that of the International Monetary Fund, which revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth rate downward to 3.0 per cent in its April 2025
According to the World Bank, the projected recovery is anchored on improved performance in non-oil sectors, notably financial services, telecommunications, information technology, and a gradual rebound in oil production, which is expected to align with Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota.
The multilateral lender anticipates that the country’s economic growth will further strengthen to 3.8 per cent by 2027, assuming current reforms are sustained.
The report stated, “Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in Nigeria. It is expected to increase from 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 3.6 per cent in 2025, and slightly increase to 3.8 per cent in 2026–27.
“The gradual recovery of the Nigerian economy along the forecast horizon is driven primarily by the service sector—specifically, finance, information and communications technology services, and transportation—and, to a lesser extent, a rebound in oil production that converges to its OPEC+ quota.”
In contrast, the IMF’s outlook remains cautious, citing persistent structural constraints and weaker oil receipts as key factors weighing down growth prospects.
The Fund projects that economic expansion will slow to 2.7 per cent in 2026.
On inflation, the World Bank projects that headline inflation will ease to 22.1 per cent in 2025, down from 26.6 per cent in 2024, with further moderation to 15.9 per cent by 2027. These forecasts are based on adjusted CPI figures following the rebasing exercise by the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2025.
The NBS had revised the base year of the Consumer Price Index from 2009 to 2024 to reflect current consumption patterns. As a result of the rebasing, inflation fell from 34.80 per cent in December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025, before rising slightly to 24.23 per cent in March, highlighting ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
However, the IMF offers a less optimistic outlook, projecting inflation to average 26.5 per cent in 2025 and spike to 37.0 per cent in 2026. The Fund attributes the stubborn inflation to structural inefficiencies, a weak supply response, and exchange rate volatility despite ongoing reforms.
Rabiu M. Hamza
Agency News
